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German DAX Index - Jun 2015 Update

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In a recent post back in April, I outlined that 16 June 2015 becomes a significant date to watch for a change in trend in the German DAX market.  Well, last week, we got that change in trend to the exact day, with the recent bottom in the DAX coming in right on our time forecast. 

In volume 2 of Trading with the Time Factor, I explain how easy is to calculate these future dates by using my own forecasting technique which I call 'trading to Time'. 

In fact, not only did I nominate 16 June 2015 as a date to watch, I wrote to friends and colleagues that the price level of 10,805 would prove to be significant support and an area to look out for a buying opportunity.  On 16 June 2015, the DAX Index bottomed at 10,798 and has rallied over 600 points so far.  So what is next for the DAX?


Chart 1 below, shows how my trading to Time technique has called very significant market tops and bottoms in the DAX since September of last year.  Each of the turning points highlighted represents a trading to Time date and have been easily predictable.  In fact, since the September 2014 top, the following turning points highlighted in blue in the chart below have occurred on the highest probability trading to Time dates.  Volume 2 of Trading with the Time Factor walks through in detail how to calculate a trading to Time date, as well as how to identify which dates have the highest probabilities of success.


Chart 1 - trading to Time (German Dax Index - daily chart)

DAX Update - Jun 2015 c.1
Click to enlarge image


The next chart below highlights two of the price forecasting techniques that I adopt and which are described in Volume 1 of Trading with the Time Factor.  The first price forecast is the box highlighted in red, showing that significant price support was due to occur at the 10,849 region.  The second forecast is the line outlining that 10,805 was going to be significant price support.  I in fact wrote to friends and colleagues shortly after the 10 April high came in the on the DAX that 10,805 was going to be a likely place of support.  I also outlined that the 16 June 2015 needed to be watched, particularly if a reversal signal occurs indicating a potential bottom.  On 16 June 2015, the DAX index bottomed out at 10,798 (within a fraction of my price forecast) and made a reversal signal, indicating it was the right time and price to buy.  In fact, the DAX gave four separate buying signals on that 16 June low, giving you multiple opportunities to trade the low.  I outline how to identify each of those four individual trading signals in the later chapters of Trading with the Time Factor.


DAX Update - Jun 2015 c.2
Click to enlarge image


So where to next for the DAX...? 

My price forecasting techniques are indicating that in the short term, the price range between 11,574 and 11,594 need to be watched as potential resistance on the way back up.  I will certainly be watching this area and to see what the market does on or around July 10th. 

Until next time. 




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