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ASX 200 - stock market forecast

Posted by on in The Time Factor
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It continues to amaze me how so many people talk about the 'random walk' theory and how it applies to financial markets. Yet, the almost perfect geometric symmetry that exists in our markets continues to stare at everyone in the face. Those of you who subscribe to my monthly Time Factor Trade Report will know that I made two price forecasts at the start of the year for the US and Australian stock markets. You can download that report for free by clicking here.

Those forecasts were:

1. The S&P 500 would reach 2415 by early June; and

2. The ASX 200 is headed to 5960 this year

Well, so far in 2017 the following yearly stock market highs have been made:

1. The S&P500 reached 2404 in mid May; and

2. The ASX 200 made a significant high at 5957

Both of those forecasts are close enough for me.

ASX 200 - 5960 forecast to actual

click to enlarge image

The basis of those forecasts were pretty simple, really. And this is how I did it.

It is undeniable in my view, that all financial markets move with a geometric symmetry that is both repeatable in pattern and in length. Not only can this allow you to predict the prices at which stock markets are more likely to make a top or bottom, but you can also predict when these tops or bottoms are likely to occur.

Take the example of the ASX 200 in the charts (above).

Notice how the move from the first low to the next major high extended for a duration of 173 calendar days. Now do you think it would be a coincidence if I told you that the very next move from the following major low to high occurred in an exactly equal sequence of 173 days? The random walk theory guys would make you believe so. But my clients know otherwise.

My subscribers are aware that I have a $4,800,000 million long position in the ASX 200 index which I purchased when the index was trading back at 5282. In my most recent monthly Trade Report, I advised my subscribers that I have now hedged that position at 5950, within a fraction of the current top. The 4.5% drop that we've seen in stock markets over the last few days hasn't concerned me one bit. In fact, I've made money from it.

Picking the next market top can be as simple as getting out a calculator and measuring how TIME and PRICE work.

My 5960 forecast wasn't a fluke. And the next forecast won't be a fluke either.

ASX 200 - 5960 forecast

Until next time...




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