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Time Trader Insights

Exclusive insights into the current trends in financial markets.

Blackstone Group - bouncing to a breakout

A few of my clients have asked for my views on the Blackstone Group and whether there has been any definitive buying signals in the stock lately.

The first point to note, is that the Blackstone Group has been characterised in a bear trend, depicted by the downward trend line marked clearly in the chart below.

Blackstone Group - 6 Dec 2016

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The trend line indicator was your first signal not to be pinning your ears back and going long the stock over the last few months, however the recent market action suggests that things may finally be about to change.

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AMEX Gold Bugs Index - short term bounce?

The AMEX Gold Bugs index is something which interests a number of my clients and anyone who is interested in the yellow metal.

Being somewhat of a gold bug myself, I always take an active interest in the price of the yellow metal which has been extremely kind to me after I first purchased gold bullion way back at $330/oz and selling just after the top at $1650/oz.

The chart below provides an overview of why the HUI may have found some short term price support in what appears to be an overall longer term bear trend.

AMEX HUI index - 6 Dec 2016

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Launching the Time Factor Trade Report

Thank you to all who have expressed an interest in the proposed monthly Time Factor Trade Report.

The aim of the Report will be to equip you with the tools to make many multiples over the small subscription price of only $120 per month. At this stage, I plan to release the first edition of the Report in mid-January 2017. The Report will focus on two key investment strategies:

Strategy 1: Trading the 'long swing'

This strategy will be about identifying the major moves in the key markets including the S&P500 index, the ASX200, the Indian Nifty index, Gold, Oil and other key commodities.

Strategy 2: Opportunistic trading opportunities

This strategy will focus on short term trade opportunities both with the major trends and counter trend rallies. A number of markets and global stocks will be included where short term trading opportunities present themselves.

Time Factor Trade Report

I will publish my trades together with a detailed analysis of the reasons why I took the trades based on the tools described in volumes 1 & 2 of Trading with the Time Factor. The Report will not only give you the entry and exit points of my trades, but it will provide the necessary education as to why I took these trades along the way.

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A Crude Oil Forecast - to the exact penny

Repeating Fibonacci extensions occur in all markets and across all time frames - daily, weekly or monthly charts work just as well as intraday time frames. In volume 1 of Trading with the Time Factor, I give some detailed examples of how markets will often make movements in price that are an exact repeat of a previous move.

To prove to you that those examples were not a couple of 'one-off' flukes, I thought I would share with you a few recent charts of the Crude Oil futures market which highlights the ongoing significance of Fibonacci in price analysis.

Chart 1 - picking the $26.09 low

The chart below highlights how the run down from the $62.58 high (marked as point "A") down to the low $37.75 low (marked as point "B") gave us an active range of $24.83 to work with. This is what I would call a MAJOR Fibonacci range, as it extends for price action achieved over a number of months and is based off a series of signifcant tops.

Using the next significant high of $50.92 (marked as point "C"), we then project forward another run of $24.83 to give us a potential price target. Subtracting $24.83 from the $50.92 high gives us a price target of $26.09 as a potential buying point for Crude Oil.

As can be seen, the actual low in Crude Oil futures came in at $26.09 exactly (in Jan) with a double bottom low in Feb at $26.05. There were a number of TIME indicators also giving us a signal to buy on each of those dates.Crude Oil - 100pc chart 1

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The impact of higher interest rates

Donald J Trump, the US president-elect, has not only stirred up a great deal of media interest and public emotion with his recent victory, but he has also had a dramatic impact on global financial markets before officially taking office.

At its essence, the economic plan of Trump is pretty simple - lower corporate taxes and commit to major infrastrucutre investment. How successful this formula ends up being will depend on how well Trump can prevent US public servants and government red tape from interfering.

It is not my place (as an Australian citizen) to comment on whether the US public got it right or wrong by electing Trump, but as a global investor, I think a Trump Presidency will be bullish for US economic conditions and therefore US equity markets. This would tie in with my 2017 forecast for US equities which I have outlined in my WD Gann Road Map for 2017. You can read a free article on my 2017 Road Map by clicking here or alternatively, you can download a free sample of the Road Map report.

The chart below is the market for 30 year US Treasuries - the best proxy for long term US interest rates.

US Treasuries 30 year weekly chart 19 Nov 2016

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A falling chart (above) means rising interest rates in the US. We have already seen this impact certain sectors of the market - for example, financial stocks (where rising interests rates are bullish) and listed property and infrastructure assets (where rising interest rates are bearish).

For the US Treasury market, we have hit critical price levels now at the 151 to 152 level. We must wait to see whether the market can hold at this level or whether it continues its downward run.

The next chart depicts how the expectation of increased interest rates has already affected one sector of the market - Australian listed property stocks.

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