Forget the Dow Jones at 20,000. We forecast that would happen months ago - and you can read that written forecast by going here.
But for those of you who think the Dow Jones can't reach 30,000 next year, then I encourage you to read on for the possible reasons why. Note, I have published an update of my US Equities Road Map for 2017 later in this article.
Before we start though, I want to point you to the chart below which outlines my WD Gann Road Map for US equities in 2016. The Road Map was created at the end of 2015, and outlined where I thought US equity prices might head throughout the 12 months ahead. My price forecast is shown by the grey line, with the actual prices of the Dow Jones in red.
As you can see (below), we predicted more than 12 months in advance, that the Dow Jones would finish the year strongly and reach 19,970 by year end. Well, as it turned out, the yearly high for the Dow ended up being 19,974 on 21 Dec. Not bad, hey?
Not only that, but we also called 1806 as a bottom for the S&P 500, and this proved to be within one point of the actual low. We published that forecast on Saturday, 23 Jan 2016 - within 3 days of the yearly low. You can re-visit that forecast for free by going here.
So using the same techniques to construct a Road Map for 2017, we see a strong year for US equities which will be followed by some sharp volatility. And here is why...
All of the MAJOR TIME CYCLES are pointing to a volatile, but generally bullish year for US equities in 2017. Markets should rally strongly, however there will be a point in time where a large, volatile sell-off in equity markets occur. I published the time frames for that in volume 2 of Trading with the Time Factor over 3 years ago, so I am ready for it.
Now, I will confess - my claim that the Dow Jones will hit 30,000 was one way of grabbing your attention through a spectacular headline. My base case scenario is actually for the Dow Jones to reach a high somewhere near 23,000 during the 2017 calendar year. Based on current prices, that would represent a gain of 15% within the next 12 monhts.
There is however, one scenario, using Gann's MASTER TIME CYCLES, where the Dow Jones could reach 28,900 before the 2017 calendar year closes (okay, it's not quite 30,000 but is pretty close!). This is a cycle I will be watching closely early in the New Year to see if history is about to repeat.
Those of you who have already purchased a copy of my WD Gann Road Map for 2017 will know that US equities have so far traded sideways, exactly as we predicted (see chart below).
For those of you who have not yet purchased our 2017 WD Gann Road Map, then I strongly encourage you to visit our Trade Shop page now and grab a copy. At $395, the Road Map offers you incredible value, and if it is anywhere near as accurate as the Road Map for 2016, it will pay your investment back in multiples.
For now, wishing you a prosperous trading year.
Until next time...