Gold forecast - the symmetry in gold

There is a wonderful symmetry to the gold market that, for most people who don't know what to look for, will never find it.

We are seeing such symmetry in gold right now.

Before getting into that, it's worth revisiting some history on gold and some of the major long term cycles that influence the gold market.

The chart below was published all the way back in 2013 in my book Trading with the Time Factor - vol. 2. At the time, I was describing a major 1,110 week time cycle that I believed was influencing the precious metal market, in particular gold. The MAJOR BEAR MARKET cycle. It was my belief that the half way point of that next cycle would be a significant time for gold, and I had forecast 2 September 2011 as a major turning point in gold, most likely the top of the market before a lengthy bear market resumed.

As it turned out, the gold futures market made an all-time high on 6 September 2011 (at least, it was the all time high back then) and entered into a 4 plus year bear market before bottoming out on 3 December 2015. A copy of that forecast, is shown below.

At the same time, I was expecting that major cycle of 1,110 weeks to repeat itself. If that was to be the case, then a major change in trend in gold could be on the cards again in mid-March 2022.

Now, bear in mind, that when I published this forecast, it was nine years ahead of the event, and we were using a 20 year time cycle. As it so turns out, the yearly high in 2022 for gold came in on 8 March 2022. Not bad?

So, it would be a fair question for someone to be asking: 'that all sounds good, but the past is the past, so what relevance does this have for the future?'. Well, let's address that specific question.

One technique I have developed is to create "Barillaro Boxes" over the market. These boxes simply capture a previous major cycle and look for similarities to occur in the next cycle that follows. In the instance of gold, I have referenced the 552 week cycle from the MAJOR BEARC CYCLE lows in 2001 to the Sep 2011 top we just referenced earlier. This is a cycle of approximately 10.6 years in duration. I talk about these "Barillaro Boxes" and how to apply them in my Trading with the Time Factor book series.

Using this technique, it would be natural to reference that most recent bull market pattern and use it to help depict the next bull market in gold. The chart below references exactly how I have utilised it. What this Box tells you on first glance, is that the current bull market cycle is stronger in price over a shorter period of time compared to the previous cycle. But for those of you have been following my work, it was a key reason why I thought this current gold market cycle would reach at least $2,710/oz during this current run (that price being a 100% repeat of the previous price cycle before it). This time cycle continues its run until late June 2026 - so pencil that in your diaries for a possible major change in trend.

Now, bear with me with this next chart as there is a lot of information in there.

The Barillaro Box technique can also be utilised over different time periods. In fact, they are effective on monthly, weekly, daily and even intra-day trading charts. The chart below takes a slightly more micro look of the gold market, leveraging the 2015 low to the recent high in 2020. I way "micro", but we are still referencing a 4 year cycle.

A couple of things, that are worth noting. Notice how in the exact mid-pay point of the first red Box, the gold market made a significant change of trend (see the green circle top). Curiously, repeating that exact time frame in the second red Box cycle, we have the most recent ("and new") all-time top that occurred last week. It would not be surprising to see gold take a breath at this point in time.

The other thing of interest is the 224 week bear market cycle from the 2011 top to the 2015 low. Now, 50% of 224 = 112. Notice how after the August 2022 top, gold prices took exactly 112 weeks to make their next major bottom.

Now, the time period of the red Box covers a period of 244 weeks. If we move forward another 244 weeks using the October 2022 low (ie the start of the second red Box), then that time cycle expires sometime around June 2027.

To assist in the time cycles coming together, I refer back to the 552 week time cycle that ended in March 2022 (remember the one we had predicted 9 years in advance). Now, interestingly, 50% of that time period equals 276 weeks. If we go forward 276 weeks from that March 2022 top, we get to a period of around... you guessed it June 2027.

When using long term cycles that cover years of duration, it is this type of symmetry that becomes incredibly meaningful when pulling your long term forecast together.

Right now, what the gold market is telling me is that June 2027 seems to a pretty good TIME to watch out for a very major change in trend.

Let me know your thoughts (or even your own calculations) in the comments section below.

Until next time...