How to recalibrate your Road Map

One of the greatest aspects about producing a yearly Road Map forecast, is the ability to re calibrate the price settings as the year unfolds.

Quite often, the Road Maps will be extremely accurate at predicting the major turning points within the calendar year, especially at forecasting the best TIME PERIODS during the year in which to buy and sell.

Occasionally however, the magnitude of the price movements may become over (or under) stated compared to the original forecast. In these instances, it is useful to re calibrate the Road Map, which can be done easily via the Excel spreadsheet calculations provided.

Last year (2020) was an excellent example. The Road Map was very successful at predicting the >20% sell off at the start of the year as a result of the COVID pandemic starting, however, the resultant snap back rally was much stronger than the Road Map had anticipated.

Despite this, the Road Map proved to be incredibly accurate during the latter part of the year, particularly in the final quarter of 2020 as it successfully called the major buying and selling points in later part of the year - sometimes to the exact day.

The image below, shows how a re calibration of the Road Map at the very beginning of September, provided an almost exact TIME and PRICE forecast for the remainder of the year.

To do this, I simply added a secondary axis on my Road Map forecast, and reset the price scales to align with the Dow Jones YTD performance.

By doing this, you can see that both our PRICE and TIME forecasts reflected an almost mirror image of the Dow Jones movements for the last four months of the year.

This would have been invaluable, especially as we headed into the US elections in early November, with the Road Map clearly forecasting you wanted to be a buyer just prior to those elections occurring.

So far in 2021, we are seeing our Road Map forecast move extremely closely once again to the PRICE and TIME action on the Dow Jones. Our Road Map (2021) trading notes predicted:

"a positive start to the year...

and

"the market should reach periods of selling pressure around the 11th-12th of January"

I think it is fair to say that both of these things have happened so far.

I will be watching the price action unfold, but most importantly using the Road Map to determine the TIME PERIODS on when to buy and sell. Having this information a year in advance is worth its weight in gold.

Until next time...