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Wow.
What a start to the year!
It's been a wonderful year for trading. And nothing yet has taken my by surprise.
Normally, I like to wait until the end of the first quarter (ie 31 March) to provide an update on the Time Factor Road Map and compare the forecast to how actual US equity market prices have traded relative to our annual forecast curve.
Given the movements in markets however, I thought it would be timely to send an update now.
I don't want to give away too much here in this public post (the Road Map 2025 is still available for those who want to grab it), but it is always a fun exercise to go back to our Road Map forecasts and revisit what we published at the beginning of the year.
Here are a few extracts from our Road Map forecast:
The geopolitical landscape over the next 12 months will be one of the most important we’ve had this decade.
The war in Ukraine, a change of US president and an ever changing inflationary outlook will all be key factors influencing the state of play of global financial markets.
Now, I'm not claiming rocket science with those predictions, but there was a specific reason why I mentioned geopolitics and the war in Ukraine as features in my forecast. In fact, there is an entire section focussed on war in the report.
Not only that, I provide a specific date that will begin this year (in 2025) that will signal a transitionary period for US geopolitics and global conflicts. That TIME CYCLE and the 2026 date that I provide for next year, will be very important time periods to watch. They are so important, that I have been getting the research ready to publish a Special Edition Report later in the year to analyse them in further detail.
So what does this mean for the here and now? Well, in short - I remain very confident in my Road Map 2025 forecast. So much so, that I am getting ready for the transition from cash back into US equities and to do so during the window I identified at the beginning of the year. (Again, it's all there in the Road Map 2025 forecast for those who want to take a look).
So how has the Road Map performed to date? Let's see for ourselves?
The chart above captures the Road Map forecast (blue line) fore the first part of this year and measures it against the actual Dow Jones index so far in 2025.
It's no secret now, but we specifically called for:
an uncertain start to the year, with little direction
And that is basically what we have got. As I write, the Dow Jones YTD is up less than one percent (see chart below).
And the S&P500 is in similar territory, albeit slightly weaker by 1.7% YTD driven largely by the declines in technology stocks. Which probably still have a little more downside to go (please refer to my post about AI stocks and NVIDIA).
What this means from my perspective, is that the start of the year was not the place to take a medium term position on. For those short term traders however, there has been some brilliant set ups - with stocks basically rallying hard from the 13 Jan lows into the 31 Jan highs and the recent sell off again in March, which was as we had predicted would be the case this year.
For me, all eyes are now on the "buying opportunity" window identified in the Road Map report and making sure I am ready for that when it comes around.
One last thing which gives me comfort that the Road Map remains on track is the "Back to the Future" chart I provided in the Road Map report, comparing a previous cycle from the 1950s to today (see below). The gold line represents the forecast curve mapped against the Dow Jones performance so far in 2025.
As you can see, prices have tracked almost exactly to that TIME CYCLE, with some minor divergence in the last few days, however, the overall trend remain in tact.
There are some very important trading to Time dates that I am now watching, namely:
5-7th of the month
13-15th of the month; and
30-31st of the month
I am watching the 90, 120 and 180 turning points for this year using dates from 2024. I'll put up a separate post on those to give you a better understanding as to what I'm looking at.
Until then, and until next time...
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