U.S. Interest Rates - where to next?

The U.S. 10 year Treasury market is one of the most important charts to follow (if not, the most important).

Wherever US interest rates go, so too does the general direction of the market - particularly in uncertain times like we are in now.

Take a look at the US 10 YR Treasury chart below. Notice the unbelievable set-up for a great short trade off the recent high at 109.94. We had an almost exactly repeating range higher in the move up from the 107.19 low of 270 points, and it was almost exactly on the major 61.8% Fib retracement line.

I love it when the market offers up these types of set-ups. Our trading to Time technique supported this with the recent high on 7 Feb, which is linked to the 6 Dec high and 5 Aug high from last year.

The next major levels to watch are key retracement zones between the 109.94 high and the 107.19 low. If the chart trades below the 61.8% level there (ie below 108.26), then there is a pretty good chance that 107.19 gets retested and taken down.

A longer term chart will show how significant that 107.19 low is, being a major double bottom low from April 2024. A breach of those levels, and we could see this chart trending further down.

Watch this space. This will dictate financial markets for the remainder of 2025.

Until next time...